It would not surprise me at all for bb7 to exceed Graham's number. Just a Kirby-Paris hydra or a Goodstein sequence gets you to epsilon zero in the fast-growing hierarchy, where Graham is around omega+2.
The 79-bit lambda term λ1(λλ2(λλ3(λ312))(1(λ1)))(λλ1)(λλ211)1 in de-Bruijn notation exhibits f_ε0 growth without all the complexities of computing Kirby-Paris hydra or Goodstein sequences. Even that is over 60% larger than the 49-bit Graham exceeder (λ11)(λ1(1(λλ12(λλ2(21))))). I think one should be quite surprised if you can climb from f_4 (2↑↑2↑↑2↑↑9) to f_{ω+1} (Graham) with just 1 additional state.
Thanks to OpenAI for voluntarily sharing these important and valuable statistics. I think these ought to be mandatory government statistics, but until they are or it becomes an industry standard, I will not criticize the first company to helpfully share them, on the basis of what they shared. Incentives.
I have tried to tell my legions of fanatic brainwashed adherents exactly this, and they have refused to listen to me because the wrong way is more fun for them.
Translators? Graphic artists? The omission of the most obviously impacted professions immediately identifies this as a cooked study, along with talking about LLMs as "chatbots". I wonder who paid for it.
are graphic artists actually getting replaced by AI? If so that would surprise me for as impressive as AI image generation is, very little of what it does seems like it would replace a graphic artists.
Doubling the productivity of 20% of workers, in cases where a lower price doesn't increase demand, can shift prices in the whole system as unemployed artists compete with other artists for wages. AI won't take your job, someone else unemployed by AI will take your job. (NGDPLT partially solves this but that's a higher competence level than civilization has.)
I'd be interested to see sources for the claim that poor eyesight is evolutionarily recent.
I strongly suspect it's more a matter of "won't kill you". Nearsightedness is far more common than farsightedness, and it's only in the last two hundred or so years that there's been any major benefit in seeing fine details at distance. The fuzzy shapes afforded by 20/80 vision are plenty enough to hunt a mammoth.
Having 20-20 vision is nice for avoiding lions and tigers, but it's a luxury spec, because movement acuity doesn't decrease linearly with nearsightedness, and movement acuity (plus traveling in groups, as prehistoric humans were wont to do) can take care of business decently-enough on its own - so I wouldn't call it "evolutionary-pressure"-nice.
Do you have any source for this? As someone born in the summer to a farming family with poor eyesight, I find it hard to believe that happened because I wasn't exposed to enough sun as an infant or child.
Interesting study. Myopia can definitely be caused by focusing too much on nearby things.
I just so happen to have Hyperopia with astigmatism, neither of which came from a lack of outdoor exposure. (If anything, I needed less time outside).
That's a bit of the issue I have with such a broad generalization. It's true that for some, a lack of time outdoors damaged their eyesight, it's not universally true that all or perhaps even most poor eyesight is a result of staying indoors.
Samson and Delilah would like to have a word with you. Also with Japanese Samurai. You loose your mythological power, leading to lost status, suicide, ...
And if it isn't already false it will be false in 6 months, or 1.5 years on the outside. AI is a moving target, and the oldest people among you might remember a time in the 1750s when it didn't talk to you about code at all.
I wonder who wrote this? Doesn't sound like Altman's voice.
I wonder who theorized this? Altman isn't known for having models about AGI.
To the actual theorist: Claiming in one paragraph that AI goes as log resources, and in the next paragraph that the resource costs drop by 10x per year, is a contradiction; the latter paragraph shows a dependence on algorithms that is nothing like "it's just the compute silly".
Hadn't seen that before, and despite being bog-standard Bostrom it's still more of an attempt to hold a theory than I'd seen associated with him before. Note nonoverlap of writing style and theory with the present post.
