You probably don't want to hear this, but one way it could happen is the Russians will get locked out of all this stuff because of sanctions, so they'll have to create their own separate open world. Yandex will build the open platform like they are releasing big language models and are not scared of the consequences of the bad people, like the Russians, getting ahold of them. Yes, the open platform will be lame compared to what the majors are offering, but Linux on the Desktop was never spectacular either.
Why? Part of what you said is something I already believe in. I think it's only a matter of time before the international network we enjoyed in the early days of the internet is destroyed by governments and their eternal struggle to impose their own incompatible laws on it. One day the internet will fracture into several regional networks with well delimited and filtered borders.
I for one am glad to have known the internet. It was truly one of the most wonderful creations of humanity.
