> The Monty Hall problem is only a problem to those who are naive about probability, which is most people, because most of us don't learn any of this stuff early enough to form long lasting, correct instincts.
I mean maybe? Depends on what your definition of being naive about probabilities is. The Monty Hall problem has a sordid history of even very learned mathemathicians specialising in probability getting it very wrong. For example Paul Erdős got it wrong[1] (until someone walked him through it)
Now maybe you count Erdős as someone who is naive about probability. In which case I guess you are right. But that puts the bar very high then.
I mean maybe? Depends on what your definition of being naive about probabilities is. The Monty Hall problem has a sordid history of even very learned mathemathicians specialising in probability getting it very wrong. For example Paul Erdős got it wrong[1] (until someone walked him through it)
Now maybe you count Erdős as someone who is naive about probability. In which case I guess you are right. But that puts the bar very high then.
1: https://sites.oxy.edu/lengyel/M372/Vazsonyi2003/vazs30_1.pdf